Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

As the Brewers return home for their final series of the regular season, they know what their schedule will look like. They have three games against the Mets and then a National League Wild Card Series at home. It’s a very comforting situation, especially considering the state of the rest of the National League.

The situation for the Mets entering this weekend’s series is complicated, to say the least. At this point, the entire wild card picture is a mess. With Hurricane Helene approaching landfall and Atlanta on its predicted path, the rain is already wreaking havoc on the area. The final two games of the Braves-Mets series were rained out and will make up Monday as a traditional doubleheader.

For the Mets, this puts them in a very difficult situation. They currently sit fifth in the National League in percentage points over the Diamondbacks (the Mets also have the tiebreaker). The Braves are one game behind. The Mets might have to play all three games in Milwaukee, fly back to Atlanta for a doubleheader and then fly back to Milwaukee or San Diego for the wild-card series. There’s even still an unlikely scenario in play in which the Mets host the wild-card series.

The Mets also have other teams to follow this weekend. The Braves and Royals meet in Atlanta over the weekend, with both teams fighting for a wild card spot in their respective leagues. With Hurricane Helene expected to hit the area, another postponement is possible that could put the Braves in an even more difficult situation. Meanwhile, the Padres and Diamondbacks face off in Arizona. The Diamondbacks will fight for a spot, but the Padres will still have something to play for (whether it’s the NL West title or fourth place in a home series). Even the Phillies and Dodgers are in no position to rest yet, as they are both fighting for first place and home-field advantage.

Of all these teams, the Brewers have the simplest situation: They will be the three seeds and they will receive someone. This series will cover workload management and pitching preparation ahead of the postseason. Pat Murphy will have to decide how much to pressure the Mets, knowing they are a potential opponent next week. He will also have to keep the team in good shape.

With all that out of the way, let’s talk about the Mets. It’s a different team than the Brewers faced at the start of the season. His first two months were incredibly hard. They started the season 0-5, but went on a six-game winning streak in mid-April that brought them to 12-8. After that, they fell again, reaching a nadir of 11 games under .500 on June 2 at 24-35. From there, they have counterattacked. They have gone 63-35 since then, going from 11 games under .500 to 17 games over. That includes a nine-game winning streak to start the month of September, as well as a 15-6 overall record for the month.

The Mets’ offense has been a key factor for them all season. They are one of six teams to surpass the 200 home run mark (203) and have a top-10 offense in runs scored (seventh, 751), on-base percentage (eighth, .321), slugging percentage (ninth, .418) , and wRC+ (seventh, 110).

Francisco Lindor has been the best player on this offense so far this season. He leads the team in hits (163), runs scored (103) and stolen bases (27). He is also second on the team in several other categories. He played in every game until September 16, when he was out of the lineup due to lower back pain. He didn’t go on the injured list and was set to return Tuesday as a pinch-hitter, but he didn’t appear at the plate as the game ended with him in the on-deck circle. It was expected to start on Wednesday, but rains delayed its return for two more days. It will be fully ready when the series begins on Friday.

The Mets also have three other players on offense with a wRC+ over 125. Mark Vientos has been the primary third baseman and has been solid at the plate all year. José Iglesias gave the team a boost in late May, beginning the season on a minor league contract before joining the roster and posting a team-high .336 batting average and a 138 wRC+. Pete Alonso remains a power threat. leading the team in home runs (38) and runs batted in (88).

One of the main reasons for the Mets’ rebound has been the change in their pitching staff. In the first half of the season, his team ERA was 22nd in the league (4.23) and his team FIP was 23rd (4.28). They turned that around in the second half, improving their team’s ERA to sixth (3.47) and FIP to seventh (3.73).

A key component of that change is in the bullpen, which has four relievers with an ERA under 2.50 (Dedniel Núñez, Phil Maton, José Buttó, Sean Reid-Foley). That doesn’t include their closer, Edwin Díaz, who has 20 saves this season and a 2.59 ERA, 1.89 FIP and 15.53 second-half K/9. Reed Garrett has also been an important part of the bullpen, leading the bullpen in innings (56 ²⁄₃) and also posted a 1.84 ERA and 1.94 FIP in the second half.

Meanwhile, the rotation is changing as the Mets have to realign after the rains. Two of their best starters, David Peterson and Sean Manaea, were lined up to pitch in the Braves’ final two games of the series. However, after the rains, that is up in the air. The only advantage of rainouts for the Mets is that they will basically have all of their starters available for this series and Monday’s doubleheader, and they can line them up however they want. Luis Severino, José Quintana and Tylor Megill could be factors in the rotation for this series, although the team has not yet announced its starters.

Probable pitchers

Friday, September 28 at 7:10 pm: TBA vs. Frankie Montas

Although a starter has not been named, the expectation is that Sean Manaea (3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP) will be the starter on Friday for the Mets. As their strongest starter all season, it’s almost necessary for him to start on Friday to ensure the Mets can have him pitching in a potential wild-card series (a start on Friday would allow him to start the second game on regular rest). Manaea leads the team in strikeouts (183) and is second in innings pitched (178) this season. His last start was Saturday when he allowed three runs in seven innings against the Phillies. (Update: The Mets have officially named Manaea as Friday’s starter.)

With Frankie Montas set to pitch on Friday, he figures to be one of the starters in the Wild Card series, likely with Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. Montas could use a bounce-back game before entering the postseason. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, he went three shutout innings and allowed eight runs (seven earned).

Saturday, September 29 at 6:15 pm: TBA vs. TBA (FOX Game)

Sunday, September 30 at 2:10 pm: To be confirmed vs. To be confirmed

These games are completely up in the air with the Brewers preparing for the NLWCS and the Mets still deciding who to pitch in each game. Despite that, we’ll likely see Colin Rea and DL Hall in these two games, along with a few other long relievers. Aaron Civale pitched today, so we probably won’t see him again in the regular season. Tobias Myers might even get an inning of work here, since otherwise it would be more than a week between his Tuesday start and the wild card series. Also, don’t be surprised if we see a random pitcher called up to take a few innings (e.g. Caleb Boushley last season).

Prediction

This series is one of the hardest to predict this season just because there is so much uncertainty about it. How hard will the Brewers play? It’s not a good idea to go overboard here, but we’ve seen plenty of teams rest too much before the postseason and then run out of steam. The only factor we know will be there is the Mets’ push for a postseason berth. For that reason alone, I’m going to predict that the Mets will take this series, and the Brewers will take one to avoid entering the postseason on a losing streak.